January 2025 is over and so are most of the early application decisions for the Class of 2028. I looked at some preliminary results from this cycle, along with the decisions received by my students, and I want to highlight a few trends. As always with college admissions, the pendulum can swing wildly from season to season and this year was no exception. Let’s look at some of this year’s trends:
Record Number of Applicants Overall
First, the number of applicants to four-year colleges increased by more than 7% overall in 2024. Specifically, the number of applications by underrepresented minority race/ethnicity increased by 13%, the number of applications by Black and Latino students, 12%, and Asian students, 7%. Additionally, the number of applications by first-generation college students increased by 14%. Some of this increase is due to a birth demographic that is now trending downward: there will be fewer 17 -and 18-year-olds as this decade closes. Of course, this increase in applications has led to more competitive admissions, especially at highly selective schools. For example, NYU set a record this year with over 120,000 applications for fall 2025 and a mere 6,500 students enrolling in campuses in New York, Abu Dhabi, and Shanghai.
Test Optional Policies
Second, we cannot avoid a conversation about the test-optional landscape. The development of comprehensive test-optional policies by leading colleges and universities has been the single most important trend in college admissions in this decade. We know that the tests are frustrating, anxiety-producing, stressful, and take time away from other more mindful activities. Many students have been told repeatedly (and now repeat to me) that they are “smart but not good test takers.” And some other students, bless their hearts, have average grades and near-perfect test scores.
The beleaguered student wonders, “How many times is too many times to retake these horrifying tests?” On one hand, the tests create an inordinate amount of stress for already highly stressed students. On the other hand, admissions committees need some objective bellwether by which they can fairly compare student to student. The tests do serve that purpose somewhat, notwithstanding significant issues with both testing procedures and testing content.
By the last few years’ admissions cycle, test-optional was firmly entrenched in the college application lexicon. Most students with average or below average scores opted to apply test-optional and focus on their essays, extracurricular activities, letters of recommendation, and other holistic attributes. I see no reason for a student with average grades, excellent essays, a few glowing letters of recommendation, and a solid list of safety and target schools to submit test scores (assuming they are below the average score of last year’s admitted students) to a test-optional school. For a student who is applying to elite colleges and universities, they must perfect the ACT or SAT (among other things) to be considered a seriously competitive applicant.
College Yield Calculations
Of course, the test-optional policies contributed to the 2024 record setting application numbers. This increase creates math problems for the colleges. A college’s yield is the percentage of students who enroll after being offered a spot in the freshman class. Yield is calculated by dividing the number of students who enroll by the total number of offers of acceptance sent. A higher yield indicates a more selective college. For example, Princeton had a recent yield rate of 69%. A less selective school will have a lower yield number.
A look at the numbers tells us what we need to know: Yield protection is very much at play in this year’s decisions. Colleges are offering deferrals and wait lists to protect and manage yield. The best of the best will be offered an early decision spot on the theory that they will enroll if accepted. This creates a high yield. Well-qualified students who are deferred or wait-listed are, at least in the school’s eyes, less likely to not enroll. Less selective schools have no choice but to cast a wider net in early acceptance offers which will always cause them to have the less desirable low-yield numbers.
Many students were disappointed in their first-round deferral or wait-listed decisions. This disappointment is normal under any admissions cycle, but the high number of deferrals and wait lists this season bears a continued close look at 2025 results throughout the year. The decisions that come out for the rest of this quarter will provide additional data that will be useful for analysis in the future. In the meantime, I encourage all deferred and wait-listed students to show continued interest in their top choices. Any letters or emails to top school officials showing continued interest should be well-crafted and error-free.
